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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd