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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers improving in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still